House of Reps Forecast Who will win the next Federal election?

Our model combines public opinion polling from different sources to estimate the national two-party preferred vote. The estimated two-party preferred vote is then used to predict the number of seats each party will win at the next Australian federal election. How it works ...
4 months ago

34.5%

Labor win majority

39.7%

Minority government

25.8%

Coalition win majority

Will the ALP or the Coalition win more seats?

Will the ALP or the Coalition win more seats?

The average result in our forecast has the ALP winning 2 more seats than the Coalition at the next election resulting in a minority government.

Our forecast accounts for uncertainty in opinion polling and predicts the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes, not just the average outcome. At the moment, there is an 80% chance that the result of the election is somewhere between the ALP winning 23 more seats than the Coalition and the Coalition winning 19 more seats than the ALP. We expect this range to get smaller as we approach election day.

How many seats will the ALP, the Coalition, and the crossbench win?

How many seats will the ALP, the Coalition, and the crossbench win?

Our most likely forecast has the ALP winning 73 seats, the Coalition winning 72 seats, and 6 MPs sitting on the crossbench resulting in a minority government.

While that is the most likely outcome, our forecast indicates the ALP has a 34.5% chance to win 76 or more seats and form majority government. Likewise, the Coalition has a 25.8% chance to form majority government. We predict there is a 39.7% chance neither party win 76 or more seats resulting in a minority government.

Who will win the national two-party preferred vote?

Who will win the national two-party preferred vote?

Our mean forecast has the ALP winning the national two-party preferred vote 50.71% to 49.29%.

Our forecast incorporates uncertainty from public opinion polling and produces a range of possible outcomes. At the moment, there is an 80% chance the national two-party preferred vote will be between the ALP winning 51.04% to 48.96% and the ALP winning 50.38% to 49.62%. We expect this range to narrow as we get closer to election day.

How have the chances changed?

How have the predicted seats changed?